Document Type : Original Manuscript
Author
Assistant Professor of Meteorology, Director of Atmospheric-Oceanic Science and Technology Faculty
Abstract
Domain design, different starting times and applying internal fixed and moving domains within the coarser simulation domain can play important roles in the results of numerical models in order prediction of tropical cyclones. In this study, Gonu Tropical Cyclone (2007) that it was formed in Arabian Sea and AHW model have been selected to demonstrate this sensitivity. The simulation results in domain design sensitivity showed, the domain that was extended more to the east direction and was included a lower coverage of the Persian Gulf had more accuracy in predicting of track and the best performance and also had an acceptable performance in predicting of hurricane intensity at the time to reach the coast of Oman and Iran. Then, internal fixed and moving domains to separate within this domain is considered and the results showed that despite some improvement in simulated intensity error, there was a reduction of simulated cyclone track. Generally, the results showed that internal fixed domain rather than internal moving domain has the better performance in selected cases. Thereafter, different starting times were tested and the results showed that the simulation starting time, 48 to 60 hours before maximum intensity of storm or in other words, when the central pressure of system shows about 1000 hp has the better performance in simulation of cyclone track and intensity. Finally, the final conditions are tested for Phet tropical cyclone (2010) that was formed in the same area. The results of this testing were satisfactory.
Keywords
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