Journal of Marine Science and Technology

Journal of Marine Science and Technology

Investigating the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the shipbuilding industry in Iran

Document Type : Original Manuscript

Authors
Department of Economocs, Faculty of Economic and Managment, Khoramshahr Marine Science and Technology University, Khoramshahr, Iran.
10.22113/jmst.2025.507179.2632
Abstract
In the present study, the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on Iran's shipbuilding industry during the period 1992 to 2020 has been investigated. Using annual data and the ARDL econometric method, the effects of variables such as exchange rate, steel prices, global exports, and sanctions on the added value of the shipbuilding industry have been analyzed. The results indicate that the devaluation of the national currency (increase in the exchange rate) has had a positive and significant impact on the added value of this industry in the long term, as it has enhanced the competitiveness of Iran's shipbuilding products in global markets. On the other hand, the increase in steel prices, as one of the main inputs, has had a negative effect on production, raising production costs. Additionally, the boom in global trade and increased demand for ships have positively influenced the growth of this industry. Despite international sanctions, the shipbuilding industry has managed to adapt to some extent, although the impact of sanctions has not been statistically significant. Finally, this study shows that Iran's shipbuilding industry, with its increasing returns to scale, has significant potential for growth and development.
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Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 07 June 2026

  • Receive Date 19 February 2025
  • Revise Date 18 March 2025
  • Accept Date 30 March 2025
  • Publish Date 07 June 2026