Evaluation and Ranking of Global Megatrends Affecting Sea Power Using a Fuzzy Screening System

Fazli, Safar; Niknam, Ali

doi:10.22113/jmst.2025.502198.2627

Evaluation and Ranking of Global Megatrends Affecting Sea Power Using a Fuzzy Screening System

Document Type : Original Manuscript

Authors

Safar Fazli

Ali Niknam

Futures Studies Group, Social Sciences Faculty, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran.

10.22113/jmst.2025.502198.2627

Abstract

ABSTRACT
Whoever rules the waves rules the world." Global megatrends pose significant challenges to the sea power of nations, affecting critical areas such as food security, energy, economy, and overall national stability. Failure to prioritize and identify the most impactful megatrends may lead to inefficient allocation of resources—financial, human, and temporal—toward trends with limited relevance to sea power. This study aims to facilitate the identification and analysis of global megatrends by ranking them based on their influence on various dimensions of sea power. Employing an applied and qualitative research approach, data were collected through documentary and field studies, utilizing computer files and questionnaires sourced from reputable textual references and domain experts. The primary analytical method applied was the Yager Fuzzy Screening System. A comprehensive review of multiple sources resulted in the identification of ten global megatrends and eleven dimensions of sea power, encompassing 52 components. These factors were then evaluated by experts using the fuzzy screening system. The final analysis highlighted four megatrends as having the greatest impact on sea power: climate change and environmental pressures, technological advancements and connectivity, technological disruptions and societal concerns, and social and economic changes. The remaining megatrends were ranked accordingly in subsequent positions.

INTRODUCTION
The evolving global landscape presents a myriad of megatrends that significantly challenge the maritime power and overall security of nations. Reputable international organizations have identified numerous critical global megatrends. However, without a systematic approach to prioritize and select those with the highest impact, maritime strategic planning may inadvertently direct valuable resources—financial, human, and temporal—toward trends of marginal relevance. This research is designed to analyze and identify the global megatrends that most substantially influence maritime power by ranking them according to their impact on key dimensions of sea power. The primary research question addressed is: Which subset of global megatrends exerts the greatest influence on maritime power? Secondary inquiries focus on elucidating the fundamental elements of these megatrends as well as the specific dimensions and components that constitute maritime power.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
Adopting an applied and qualitative research approach, this study utilized both documentary and field-based data collection methods. Data were gathered through computer-assisted tools and structured questionnaires. The identification of global megatrends, along with the dimensions and components of maritime power, was accomplished through an extensive review of credible textual sources and further refined via interviews with domain experts. These experts were also invited to identify any potentially overlooked trends, dimensions, or components. A fuzzy screening system served as the primary analytical tool. In this system, global megatrends were treated as candidate variables, while the dimensions of maritime power functioned as evaluation criteria—thereby eliminating the necessity for traditional statistical tests. Ten experts were selected through snowball sampling, and a questionnaire featuring a curated list of megatrends and maritime power dimensions (with concise descriptions) was administered. Experts evaluated these elements using linguistic scales, and the subsequent analysis was performed through the fuzzy screening system.

RESULTS
An analysis of reports published in 2023 and 2024, combined with expert consultations, resulted in the identification of ten global megatrends:
1. Global and regional power rivalries
2. Population pressures and migration
3. Climate change and environmental pressures
4. Technological advancements and connectivity
5. Economic shifts and energy transition
6. Inequality and governance challenges
7. Globalization gaps and fractured societies
8. Comprehensive health and well-being
9. Technological disruptions and societal concerns
10. Social and economic changes
Similarly, an initial list comprising eleven dimensions of maritime power was compiled:
1. Maritime sciences
2. Industries and infrastructures
3. Maritime fleets
4. Maritime services
5. Geopolitical capacities and dimensions
6. Military sea power
7. Human resources
8. Intelligence and soft power
9. Operational capabilities
10. Geographic positioning
11. Support structures
Utilizing the fuzzy screening system, the ten global megatrends were ranked based on their impact on these maritime dimensions. The highest impact was attributed to:
Climate change and environmental pressures
Technological advancements and connectivity
Technological disruptions and societal concerns
Social and economic changes
Following these, a second tier was established, including:
Global and regional power rivalries
Population pressures and migration
Economic shifts and energy transition
Inequality and governance challenges
Globalization gaps and fractured societies
The megatrend of comprehensive health and well-being was positioned in the third tier.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION
The application of the fuzzy screening system in this study facilitated a systematic ranking of ten global megatrends based on their influence on maritime power dimensions. The results corroborate findings from key international reports, such as the United Nations' Review of Maritime Transport 2024, which emphasizes environmental, operational, geopolitical, technological, and economic factors as pivotal to the performance and sustainability of maritime transport (United Nations, 2024). Similarly, the Global Maritime Trends 2050 report by Lloyd’s Register Foundation and Economist Impact (2023) highlights the critical role of climate change collaboration and rapid technology adoption in shaping the maritime sector's future. These reports align closely with the top-ranked megatrends identified in this research.
Furthermore, Allahverdizadeh and Karimi (2022) titled A New Approach to the Theory of Maritime Power in the 21st Century (During Peace and War), discusses the dynamic evolution of maritime power by focusing on emerging threats, environmental changes, economic dynamics, and the roles of state and non-state actors.These aspects are consistent with the megatrends identified in our study, particularly climate change and environmental pressures and social and economic changes, while globalization gaps and fractured societies were found to exert a moderate influence in the current analysis.
This study addresses a notable research gap by prioritizing global megatrends based on their impact on maritime power dimensions. Its methodological framework and contemporary scope contribute significantly to the literature. Future research may explore each identified megatrend in greater detail and examine its implications for maritime power more comprehensively, potentially utilizing additional multi-criteria decision-making techniques such as fuzzy ANP or fuzzy AHP. Policymakers in the maritime domain can leverage these findings to refine strategic planning and resource allocation.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The authors gratefully acknowledge the editorial board and reviewers of the Journal of Marine Science and Technology for their invaluable insights, which greatly contributed to the refinement and quality of this study.

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United Nations. 2024. Review of maritime transport 2024. Pp. eds. United Nations Publications, New York. https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/rmt2024_en.pdf

Keywords

Dimensions of sea power

Fuzzy screening system

Trends analysis

Futures studies

Subjects

علوم انسانی دریا

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