ABSTRACT
The Caspian Sea's significance and strategic location in the Middle East, Central Asia, Europe, and the Caucasus for trade and transport necessitate fostering regional and international economic and political relationships. Political and economic factors influence the formation of security and economic cooperation development strategies. To enhance Iran's portion of resources and benefits from the Caspian Sea, we analyzed economic factors from 2014 to 2024 and assessed how they affect maritime transportation in the region. Data was gathered from the databases of the United Nations, the World Bank, and the Ports and Maritime Organization of Iran. We applied a regression model to assess the influence of certain parameters. The results of this study show that the population changes in countries will impact the amount of sea transportation and the demand for trade to fulfill a country's basic needs through importing and exporting. Utilizing findings to implement effective measures and plans for sea transportation, based on analyzing economic indicators, can greatly enhance goal-setting, economic planning, project execution, and port infrastructure development.
 
1.INTRODUCTION
Transportation, especially maritime transportation, is crucial for economic development. Therefore, the emphasis on improving naval transportation is critical for nations that depend on a strong transportation infrastructure for economic success. The legal status of the Caspian Sea changed following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, resulting in the emergence of five bordering countries: Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Iran, and Turkmenistan. This change drastically transformed the area's geopolitical structure. The rich resources and commercial appeal of the Caspian Sea have led neighboring countries to strive for benefits from it due to its important historical status. Economic factors have a significant impact on employment, trade, and political relationships in the Caspian Sea region. The growing cooperation among cross-border ecosystems has resulted in the emergence of fresh frontiers in the region, as global entities such as the US, EU nations, and China compete for a greater share in the business sector using diverse strategies. This research concentrates on recognizing the economic variables and evaluating their impact on maritime transportation in the Caspian Sea for bulk and container shipments. These economic factors have an impact on the development strategies of security cooperation in the Caspian Sea region.
Due to the cost efficiency of sea transportation for bulk and container shipments compared to other methods, maximizing profits from imports and exports is crucial by fully utilizing economic opportunities. Hence, it is imperative to analyze regional markets to understand how economic factors affect sea transport. This could also assist nations such as Iran in expanding into new markets and boosting their profits.
Yousefi (2019) examined the geopolitical significance of countries surrounding the Caspian Sea, with a specific focus on Iran in her research. She highlighted Iran's strategic location between the energy-rich Persian Gulf and the Caspian Sea, emphasizing the influence of factors like nationality, population, and economy on the region's new geopolitics.
Motallebi and Kafili (2020) examined strategies to enhance Iran's maritime transport by analyzing its SWOT and identifying weaknesses in both internal and external performance. Their recommendations included forming alliances, making significant investments, and prioritizing the private sector to boost the capacity of the maritime fleet.
Rasekhi et al. (2021) analyzed Iran's trade capabilities with CIS member nations, assessing the resemblance of Iran's trade patterns with the region using different trade measures, and found that Iran has utilized under 10% of its trade capacity in the majority of CIS nations.
Ismailzade and Babayev (2020) highlighted the advantages of the Caspian Sea basin transportation networks for major powers like US, EU, China, and Russia, noting the cost and time-saving opportunities of this corridor.
In the study of shipping and logistics management, Lun et al. (2010) discussed different facets of shipping and logistics, focusing on the close connection between international trade and transportation, particularly sea transport. Additionally, they discussed features of the shipping industry, pricing system for shipping, and various categories of maritime transport such as bulk and container, liner and Trump shipping networks, container supply chain, port activities, flexible ports, and more.
 
2. MATERIALS AND METHODS
The focus of the research is on the countries surrounding the Caspian Sea, including Iran, Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan. Data from 2014 to 2024 in key ports was analyzed, with population, GDP, CPI, and trade volume as independent variables and sea transportation volume as the dependent variable.
Forecasting what lies ahead is crucial for countries to make decisions that influence their future possibilities during periods of economic and political instability. Forecasting the amount of maritime transportation can help in making informed decisions about trade adjustments and economic and political links in the maritime industry. The regression model is an important tool for examining data and predicting upcoming outcomes. The findings indicated that the group with the strongest correlation has a significant impact on the level of maritime transportation in the Caspian Sea. Regression equations were developed to forecast the fluctuations in the dependent variable by examining changes in the independent variables to gain insight into their influence.
 
3.RESULTS
The findings show that the population, acting as the sole independent variable, influences the level of sea transportation in the Caspian coastal nations through social, economic, and political factors. The population variable change will result in a significant difference in maritime transport volume.
The regression model suggests that the increase in population significantly boosts maritime transport volume, making population a crucial factor influencing countries' decisions on economic policies, as well as political and diplomatic relations with other nations. Still, the issue at hand is why is there a strong and positive correlation between using CPI to measure PPP and the amount of sea transportation in a country like Iran.
 
4. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION
The findings indicate that the demographic changes in the countries studied have a significant impact on the volume of sea transportation, as evidenced by a strong correlation. Additionally, the amount of maritime traffic in Iranian ports along the Caspian Sea fluctuates at a rate of 1:92 by shifts in population. Essentially, with each additional one million people in the population, the volume of bulk and container transportation in the ports of this area increases by around two million tons. Consequently, there is a boost in CPI, resulting in enhanced economic prosperity by raising the PPP of typical households and subsequently increasing societal contentment.
Research results demonstrate the impact of population growth on the quantity of maritime shipping and the demand for trade to deliver essential products through imports. Hence, to reach the maximum capacity, it is essential to identify strengths and weaknesses, regional opportunities and threats, and take strategic measures such as expanding the fleet, enhancing the container fleet and communication infrastructure, boosting economic collaboration, dedicating a portion of GDP to maritime economic activities, and more.
 
Refrences:
Ismailzade, F. and Babayev, B., 2020. Strategic Advantages of Transport Network in the Caspian Sea Region. Development of Management and Entrepreneurship Methods on Transport, 4(73), pp.79-91. https://doi.org/10.31375/2226-1915-2020-4-79-91.
Motallebi, MA. and Kafili, V., 2020. The Strategies of Developing Iran's Maritime Transport. Quarterly of Defense Economics & Sustainable Development, 5(17), pp.159-178. https://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.25382454.1399.5.17.6.4. (In Persian)
Rasekhi, S., Saedi, R., Yadmellat, N. and Hoseini, S.A., 2021. Trade Potentials of Iran and CIS. Journal of International Marketing Modeling, 2(1), pp.18–30. https://www.doi.org/10.22080/jimm.2021.20981.1015.
Lun, Y., Lai, K. and Cheng, T., 2010. Shipping and Logistics Management. London: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-84882-997-8.
Yousefi, A., 2019. The Study of Caspian Sea Geopolitical Importance. Scientific Quarterly of the Iranian Geographical Society, 17(62). pp.206-217. (In Persian)