Abstract
Economic shocks due to the occurrence of uncertainty as well as the effect it has on various financial programs and some macro indicators, change the motivation of monetary actors and affect the production of the country's economic sectors. For this purpose, the ARDL model is used for shrimp production on an annual basis and the VECM model is used for seasonal shrimp export. The results show that exchange rate shock, price, and white spot disease affect shrimp production. Exchange rates have a positive and significant effect on shrimp shock exports and both interest rates and prices have a negative and significant impact. The results of variance decomposition indicate that the most influential factor between the explanatory variables is related to the exchange rate, which after about 10 chapters explains 22% of export fluctuations, and interest rates and prices with about 9 and 5, respectively. The important point in the production and export of shrimp is that the conditions of sanctions have not affected this industry, because of its export value, it can plan for it in any economic situation and increase investment in this sector.
 

INTRODUCTION:

Bushehr Province, one of the major shrimp-producing regions in Iran, has experienced significant fluctuations in shrimp production and exports in recent years. White spot syndrome virus has been identified as the primary cause of these fluctuations. This disease caused substantial damage to the province's shrimp farming industry in 2005, 2014, and 2019. This study aims to investigate the factors influencing the fluctuations in shrimp production and exports in Bushehr Province. The results indicate that, in addition to diseases, macroeconomic factors such as economic shocks and sanctions can also impact shrimp production and exports. To examine this issue in more detail, econometric ARDL and VAR models have been employed. Using these models, the relationship between macroeconomic variables and shrimp production and exports can be analyzed, and the factors influencing these fluctuations can be identified.
 

MATERIALS AND METHODS:

In this study, to examine the impact of macroeconomic variables on the fluctuations of shrimp production and exports in Bushehr Province, two econometric models, Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), were employed. The VAR model, as a powerful tool for analyzing contemporaneous relationships among multiple variables, enables the examination of the mutual impact of
variables on each other. On the other hand, the ARDL model, due to its capability of simultaneously analyzing variables with different integration orders, is suitable for examining both long-term and short-term relationships between variables.
The data used in this research includes shrimp production, shrimp exports, exchange rate, interest rate, government capital expenditure, inflation in the agriculture and fisheries sector, nuclear sanctions, and white spot disease in shrimp. After examining the stationarity of the variables using the augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test, the VAR and ARDL models were estimated. In the VAR model, by using impulse response functions and variance decomposition, the impact of shocks to the system on endogenous variables was analyzed. In the ARDL model, the long-term and short-term relationships between variables and the impact of conditional heteroscedasticity on the model were examined.
 

RESULTS:

The results of the study indicate that macroeconomic factors have a significant impact on the fluctuations of shrimp production and exports in Bushehr Province.
The ARDL model analysis for shrimp production showed that the exchange rate and producer price have a positive and significant impact on shrimp production. This means that an increase in the exchange rate and prices creates an incentive for increased production. Additionally, white spot disease had a negative and significant impact on production. On the other hand, the results of the VAR model for shrimp exports showed that the exchange rate has a positive effect, while interest rates and prices hurt exports. These findings suggest that an increase in the exchange rate leads to an increase in exports, while an increase in interest rates and prices leads to a decrease in exports.
Diagnostic tests showed that the estimated models have good statistical validity. Furthermore, stability tests indicate that the models are stable in the long term. Variance decomposition also shows that the exchange rate has the greatest impact on the fluctuations of shrimp exports.
Overall, the results of this study suggest that policymakers should pay close attention to macroeconomic factors such as exchange rates, interest rates, and prices to improve shrimp production and exports in Bushehr Province. Additionally, controlling aquatic diseases and creating appropriate infrastructure for exports are among the issues that need to be addressed.
 

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

This research aimed to investigate the impact of macroeconomic shocks on shrimp production and exports in Bushehr Province. The results show that fluctuations in the economy, particularly exchange rates, prices, and diseases such as white spot, have a significant impact on this industry. An increase in the exchange rate, due to increased export earnings, encourages increased production and exports. Conversely, increases in prices and diseases, due to decreased profitability and reduced demand, lead to decreases in production and exports. The results also show that sanctions have not had a direct impact on shrimp production and exports. Given the importance of the shrimp industry in Bushehr Province's economy, policymakers should manage exchange rate fluctuations, control diseases, and support producers to enable this industry to continue growing as a job creator and foreign exchange earner.
 
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This paper is based on the results of a research project titled "The effect of sanctions and economics shocks on shrimp production and exports in Bushehr province", which was supported by the Bushehr Provincial Department of Economic Affairs and Finance.