Document Type : Original Manuscript
Authors
1 . Assistant professor, Department of Economics, School of Business and Economics, Persian Gulf University, Bushehr, Iran,
2 Assistant professor, Department of Economics, School of Business and Economics, Persian Gulf University, Bushehr, Iran,
3 MSc. of Economics, School of Business and Economics, Persian Gulf University, Bushehr, Iran.
Abstract
Economic shocks due to the occurrence of uncertainty as well as the effect it has on various economic programs and some macro indicators, change the motivation of economic actors and affect the production of the country's economic sectors. For this purpose, ARDL model is used for shrimp production on an annual basis and VECM model is used for seasonal shrimp export. The results show that exchange rate shock, price and white spot disease affect shrimp production. Exchange rates have a positive and significant effect on shrimp shock exports and both interest rates and prices have a negative and significant effect. The results of variance decomposition indicate that the most influential factor between the explanatory variables is related to the exchange rate, which after about 10 chapters explains 22% of export fluctuations, and interest rates and prices with about 9 and 5, respectively. The important point in the production and export of shrimp is that the conditions of sanctions have not affected this industry and because of its export value, it can plan for it in any economic situation and increase investment in this sector.
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